Francisco M. Olivero  ·  Argentina 2027

Argentina 2027 — Presidential Forecast Monitor

Chart 01 · Head-to-head

Milei vs. the leading Peronist (Kicillof) — runoff voting intention

Hypothetical Milei–Kicillof runoff (ballotage) voting intention from 2026 polls, refreshed daily. Each faint dot is one firm’s poll; the bold line is a kernel-smoothed poll-average. Hover any dot for its firm, date and value.

Milei (LLA) Kicillof (Fuerza Patria) faint dots = individual polls · bold line = poll-average
Chart 02 · National vote by space

National vote intention by political space

First-round vote intention for the 2027 legislative race, grouped by political space rather than by candidate — the read the head-to-head above can’t give you. Each faint dot is one firm’s poll placed on its fieldwork-end date; the bold line is a kernel-smoothed poll-average. Undecided (“sin definir”) is shown for context; the residual “resto” is omitted.

La Libertad Avanza Peronismo PRO Izquierda Sin definir
Chart 03 · Right-bloc alliance

If La Libertad Avanza and the PRO ran together

The same series with LLA and the PRO merged into a single right-bloc line, set against Peronismo. The alliance line is a day-by-day sum of the two separate averages, not a measured coalition ticket: when two forces combine the vote does not transfer whole, so read it as a ceiling. Undecided shown for context.

Alianza LLA+PRO (sum) Peronismo Izquierda Sin definir
Chart 04 · UTDT confidence index

Índice de Confianza en el Gobierno (ICG)

The monthly government-confidence index from Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, on a 0–5 scale.

Dimension I — headline index, monthly
Dimension II — the five sub-indices
Chart 05 · Cross-administration

Confidence in Government Index by president

The same Di Tella ICG, re-indexed by months in office, so each president is compared at the equivalent stage of their term. The series is capped at Milei’s latest month for a like-for-like read.

Chart 06 · Vote-intention proxy

Implied vote intention by president (ICG × 20)

A back-of-the-envelope read of the same Di Tella ICG as vote intention: the 0–5 confidence score is rescaled to a 0–100 point (ICG × 20) and re-indexed by months in office, so each presidency’s implied support can be compared at the equivalent stage of its term. The dotted line marks the 50% majority threshold. This is a mechanical transformation of the confidence index, not a poll.

Chart 07 · Prediction market

Polymarket — election winner odds

How the market-implied probability of winning the 2027 presidential election has evolved for the leading candidates, from the Polymarket “Argentina Presidential Election Winner” market. Each candidate’s daily price history is read as a probability (a 48¢ share = a 48% implied chance). This loads live from Polymarket on every visit; if the history feed is unreachable it falls back to the latest snapshot.