Own forecast · blended
Estimated probability Milei wins the 2027 presidency
Two independent reads, blended. Polls: a Monte Carlo that projects today’s vote intention to election day with fat-tailed uncertainty calibrated to the 2023 polling miss. Fundamentals: a logistic regression trained on every re-election bid since 2003 — the government’s ICG (UTDT confidence index) in the election window vs whether the incumbent coalition held the presidency. Drag any assumption; the headline updates live.
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blended probability Milei wins
Polls Monte Carlo—
Fundamentals (ICG logistic)—
Runoff share (median · 90%)—
Dashboard head-to-head ≈ 35; Tendencias snapshot 32.8
Dashboard head-to-head ≈ 25; Tendencias snapshot 26.3
Drives the fundamentals logistic. Jun-2026 reading: 2.07. Election windows: 2011 → 2.50 (won) · 2019 → 2.04 (lost) · 2023 → 1.17 (lost).
16 months out, polls deserve limited weight; slide toward 100% as the election nears.
Share of the non-Milei/non-Kicillof vote breaking to Milei in a runoff. Empirical anchor: incumbents captured 23% (2023) and 40% (2015); the default is capped at the best capture ever observed.
2023 final-stretch miss ≈ 3.3 pts RMSE; inflated for the ~16-month horizon. Shocks are fat-tailed (Student-t, df 5).